Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 22.687725 24.667572 26.801235 29.281880 32.099625 35.216146 38.945122
2026-01-11 19.705398 22.444713 25.602107 29.551964 34.420500 40.305904 48.086719
2026-01-18 17.365568 20.489583 24.282312 29.314182 35.954789 44.632077 57.212053
2026-01-25 15.651001 18.994506 23.228370 29.128560 37.389457 48.968461 67.288204
2026-02-01 14.374117 17.859582 22.432984 29.083580 38.899796 53.581915 78.867289
2026-02-08 13.306931 16.860528 21.665100 28.912786 40.121406 57.911370 91.137685
2026-02-15 12.410616 15.990267 20.956771 28.694251 41.173922 62.103151 104.389606
2026-02-22 11.649820 15.231034 20.314050 28.465018 42.126741 66.257269 118.920780
2026-03-01 11.030778 14.615816 19.812078 28.372853 43.257666 70.919492 136.243434
2026-03-08 10.481742 14.055558 19.334370 28.248608 44.286731 75.575812 155.508821
2026-03-15 10.237087 13.922287 19.488965 29.172932 47.342368 85.033929 191.906310
2026-03-22 9.756763 13.396859 18.980422 28.896277 48.061137 89.632871 217.277303
2026-03-29 9.351698 12.970551 18.612170 28.854376 49.297950 95.901364 252.895813
2026-04-05 9.044734 12.677817 18.439157 29.147649 51.282914 104.618990 305.016189
2026-04-12 8.669427 12.253546 18.014933 28.928039 52.140952 110.738999 353.280235
2026-04-19 8.333538 11.872473 17.635403 28.752300 53.069716 117.387164 412.246473
2026-04-26 8.047323 11.555198 17.341806 28.711210 54.302321 125.377633 490.302799
2026-05-03 7.763301 11.225616 17.003368 28.544949 55.212255 132.748730 578.353919
2026-05-10 7.493066 10.904648 16.658619 28.331014 55.973424 139.974654 681.777069
2026-05-17 7.240394 10.600419 16.324322 28.106187 56.674794 147.333355 806.852357
2026-05-24 7.023941 10.346808 16.065678 28.015812 57.717670 156.447757 980.856726
2026-05-31 6.817157 10.099834 15.803953 27.893841 58.661171 165.681293 1198.941393
2026-06-07 6.757720 10.102798 16.004539 28.801740 62.647619 189.718103 1799.968094